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Warning

23.09 7:27 ч. сл.об. 19:27 ч. – 24.09 9:00 ч. сл.об. 21:00 ч.

Hydrologic Outlook issued September 23 at 3:27PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL ESFTAE As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast area later this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10 inches possible. This could lead to some flash flooding, some of which could be locally considerable. Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Many of these areas are 3 to 7 inches above normal over the last 2 weeks. Farther east, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given the saturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be more susceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas would also be susceptible. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined most of our forecast area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which is a level 3 of 4. This is highly unusual given we are 3 to 4 days from the event, which highlights the threat and the confidence of the heavy rainfall potential. A Flood Watch will likely be needed Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the area. On the riverine front, at least minor river flooding is possible at many of our forecast points given the current rainfall forecast. In areas that exceed 6 inches of rain, locally moderate river flooding would be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only account for the next 48 hours of rainfall. Thus, current river forecasts do not account for any rainfall from the tropical system at this point. Stay tuned to later updates.

National Weather Service

Flood

26.09 0:00 ч. пр.об. 00:00 ч. – 27.09 0:00 ч. сл.об. 12:00 ч.

Flood Watch issued September 24 at 2:46AM EDT until September 27 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall due to a tropical system. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, including the following areas, Coffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry and Houston, Florida, including the following areas, Calhoun, Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Dixie, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, North Walton, South Walton and Washington, and Georgia, including the following areas, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Clay, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Grady, Irwin, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Miller, Mitchell, Quitman, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner and Worth. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive rainfall due to a tropical system will likely result in areas of flash flooding some of which could be locally considerable across portions of the watch area. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast area later this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10 inches possible across portions of the Florida Big Bend. This could lead to some flash flooding, some of which could be locally considerable. Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Farther east, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given the saturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be more susceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas would also be susceptible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

National Weather Service

Wind

24.09 9:10 ч. пр.об. 09:10 ч. – 24.09 5:15 ч. сл.об. 17:15 ч.

Hurricane Watch issued September 24 at 5:10AM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Mayo * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 60-80 mph with gusts to 100 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday afternoon until early Friday morning - Window for Hurricane force winds: Thursday afternoon until Thursday evening - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind greater than 110 mph - PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane force or higher. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - No storm surge inundation forecast - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm surge flooding - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed. - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor forecasts. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - Local Weather Conditions and Forecasts: NWS Tallahassee - https://www.weather.gov/tallahassee - Information from the Florida Division of Emergency Management - https://www.floridadisaster.org

National Weather Service

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